The threat scenarios are updated as a part of the national risk assessment every three years.

Finnish society is quite safe. However, disruptions may occur, even in normal conditions, and seriously influence the life of many Finns. In recent years, the water supply crisis in Nokia, Central Finland, school shootings and the Covid-19 pandemic are examples of this.

Preparedness is always based on risk assessments, which must be comprehensive and include all threat scenarios. Threat scenarios are specified on the basis of changes in threat assessments, which require continuous and regular assessment and updating of risks. The Security Strategy for Society 2017 utilises the national risk assessment for 2015 and the threat scenarios of the Security Strategy for Society 2010 as a common basis for the preparedness risk assessment. The next national risk assessment will be published in 2026.

The threat scenarios described in the National risk assessment of 2023 consist of the following:

  • Information influence activities
  • Political, financial and military pressure
  • Use of military force
  • Mass influx of migrants and instrumentalisation of migration
  • Terrorist act or another violent act targeting the structures of society or large crowds
  • Violent civil disturbances involving large crowds, groups or communities or actions compromising social order
  • Disruption of the public economy
  • Disruption of the financial system
  • Disruptions in energy supply
  • Disruptions in information and communications networks and services
  • Disruptions in the continuity of transport
  • Disruptions in health security
  • Disruptions in water supply
  • Disruptions in food supply and deterioration of food and nutrition security
  • Large-scale or long-lasting accidents

The authorities, organisations and companies can plan their preparedness by adapting threat scenarios according to their operating environments. Many municipalities, for instance, have drawn up preparedness plans based on the Security Strategy for Society.